Trump's Capture of Maduro: Turning a Global Superpower into a Lawless Actor

Against the backdrop of the immense confusion surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the early hours of Saturday saw its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The choice to militarily strike another state and abduct its leader – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has remarked that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a renegade nation.

He believes that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or congressional approval; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the implication this carries to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage further adventurism.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

It is widely rejected the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. World leaders may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, considering the potential next target.