Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Decline Over a Third Under the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Government Statistics

The average number of per-day murders each month in Mexico has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by new administrative figures. Nevertheless, public safety experts have warned that homicide numbers might not signal better countrywide security.

Marked Drop in Daily Numbers

There was an mean of close to 55 murders a day in last November versus almost 87 when the President took the leadership in the previous September. This announcement was delivered by the chief of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that have been recorded during these months is very significant,” the President said, explaining that last month the lowest figure of homicides were documented for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Background and Government Plan

Violent cartel internal conflicts, combined with the administration's highly military operations to combat the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate soar in recent years. The figure hit a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s official data agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate more than four times higher than the United States. However, killings have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her national security strategy for an apparently steeper decline in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the Mexican leader declared: “We have a plan, we have tracking of the plan, and we have detailed tracking locality by locality in some cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The key elements of Sheinbaum’s safety plan encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Greater collaboration between government agencies.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Limitations

However, public safety analysts cautioned that relying on murder data to assess the situation of pacification was problematic. This is especially true in light of the uptick in different criminal activities such as people going missing.

“That would be very good news if this were a decrease, but I think we can’t just focus on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Oh well, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

According to the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the same timeframe last year. Yet, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer useful for assessing the reality of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the capacity or the desire to accurately recognize and categorize corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using monthly means of everyday homicides was similarly an issue because it could hide periods when there were particularly high levels of killings.

“Employing the daily mean makes surges of violent crime unseen,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

An area where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact crimes, according to government data. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s highly politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration

Yet notwithstanding these actions, Mexico remains plagued by high bloodshed, with a number of states in the midst of cartel-driven violence. In the previous month there was a prominent killing of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the past year.

A short time later, thousands of protesters protested in the capital and throughout the nation to voice their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a way to construct a story of security. Politically it’s very effective, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” the analyst remarked.